E166 - Headset Wrapped 2024 and Looking Ahead to Next Year

[00:00:00] Welcome to the High Rise Podcast presented by Headset, the leading data and analytics company for the cannabis industry.

[00:00:07] Welcome back to the High Rise, a laid back data back conversation where we talk all things cannabis from US MSOs to Canadian LPs, products and market analysis through the lens of data.

[00:00:17] My name is Si Scott with Headset and I am joined as always by Emily Paxia of Poseidon.

[00:00:23] Hi everyone. Welcome to the High Rise.

[00:00:26] Emily, it's the end of the year basically. Kind of starting to feel that way. I think the last week is going to be pretty quiet in Canna Land given, you know, Monday and then it's Christmas Eve and all the way through New Year's, kind of a strange one. So I do feel like this is the end of the line for the year.

[00:00:47] Yeah, and it, I think it tells because my days have been insane.

[00:00:51] Have they?

[00:00:52] Yeah, but I think everyone's trying to. It is also the kind of bum out that MJBiz is the beginning of December now.

[00:01:02] I know, totally.

[00:01:02] It's like scramble town USA after, after that because, and even for me, like I'm not in a sales cycle at MJBiz. I'm just taking meetings, but then the follow ups to those meetings become incredibly, it just loads the calendar on the back half of that.

[00:01:17] So, I'm with you. Yeah, I think to add on to that, we had Thanksgiving the week before, right? So it was a short week, Thanksgiving week, and then you had MJBiz.

[00:01:29] And then here we are, what, two weeks later, and it's kind of like over.

[00:01:33] Yeah. And, and then for like founders like you or people who are on boards like me, it's like we're doing a lot of talking about budget planning, year end stuff with companies just trying to make sure everyone's locked and loaded for 2025.

[00:01:46] So. Crazy. Crazy. Yeah, I got any exciting stuff coming up for the break?

[00:01:54] Hmm. Might go to the Alamo showing of my favorite Christmas movie. Can you guess?

[00:02:00] Favorite Christmas movie. Obviously, Home Alone.

[00:02:07] Eyes Wide Shut.

[00:02:09] Super wholesome Christmas movie.

[00:02:11] That is like the, the atmosphere in that movie. You know, the Christmas atmosphere, I should clarify, the mansion atmosphere. The Christmas atmosphere of like the fake New York. It was well done because it wasn't it filmed in London?

[00:02:30] London. London. Yeah. Amazing. So good. And it's like, it's very kind of dystopian, sad Christmas vibes. But I just love it. And I love that, you know, Alamo Drafthouse to their credit, I just feel like they would be the best cannabis partnership too, is they with like beverages. They show, they do throwbacks. Like I saw Easy Rider this year and it had been revitalized on, you know, the film quality had been, I don't know the right words for it.

[00:03:00] But it's cool to watch these older movies and, you know, and in the theater so you're not distracted and you can pay attention to detail. But that's, that's one of the things I'm going to do. What about you? Yeah.

[00:03:11] You have kids. So I feel like your Christmas is different.

[00:03:13] Taking my kids to see Eyes Wide Shut.

[00:03:16] So not that.

[00:03:19] I haven't seen that movie in a long time, actually. And I remember seeing it and it really like a good Kubrick movie just sticks with you for sure. It's got, it's like on so many levels.

[00:03:28] I recently saw it and I think it was like a blog post. Someone wrote about it as well. Like something about Kubrick, every scene, everything in every scene has a purpose. Like he didn't, there was no reason for just kind of randomness, which is, you know, I guess if it was anybody else, maybe be like, okay, whatever. Sure. But I think given his experience and everything in history, like for sure, that's probably the case.

[00:03:54] Yeah, I think so. I went down, you know, the rabbit hole on The Shining once and there's obviously a lot of theories about it, but when you, I mean, a lot of it actually makes a lot of sense.

[00:04:06] Every single thing from a can of food on the shelf to like the Calumet cans in the, anyway, there's a lot of really interesting things.

[00:04:15] And yeah, that's why I like seeing it in the theater because it's holding my attention so I can absorb all of the purpose-driven aspects of the, you know, of what's going on in the film. So anyway.

[00:04:26] Well, that's great. Yeah, no, I'm, I'm nothing that exciting. Just visiting family for me, you know, for me visiting family, which is always great. It's, it's tiring. Like it's a lot, you know, it's not really a break.

[00:04:40] Cause you're zipping between, you know, parents, in-laws, everything in between for, you know, roughly a week, you know, for me, I have to travel.

[00:04:51] Um, but it's always great. It's always great to see everybody. So, and California is going to be a little warmer than where I'm at in Seattle, which is always nice. So looking forward to that. And, and frankly, like as busy as I'll be kind of looking forward to just kind of the general quiet in the markets, like in the industry, because it gets quieter.

[00:05:08] So not so many emails to respond to so many things to be dealing with. So it'll be a nice break. Um, yeah. And onto 2025 and that's kind of what I wanted to dig into today. Like, uh, you know, our, our infamous annual predictions. I think we've done them a couple of years at this point. Uh, I did pull last year's prediction. So I thought we could maybe review, uh, and, and score ourselves on this stuff.

[00:05:37] Um, does that sound good?

[00:05:40] Yeah. And by the way, like when, when you sent these to me yesterday, I was impressed. I have to say we got a couple wrong.

[00:05:48] Sure.

[00:05:49] But, you know, if we got them all right, it would look scary. Right. And people would come for us. We have to, you know, pretend like we don't know everything sometimes.

[00:05:58] That's right. And, uh, yeah, there's a line from a movie, which I will not quote, but yes, we are, I think we did pretty well.

[00:06:06] I thought we were trying to be very thought, you know, thoughtful as usual and not just a shoot for the stars on the predictions. So, uh, but I think that's why they landed in an interesting place. So do you want to kick it off?

[00:06:19] Yeah. Yeah, no, definitely. So, uh, let's see, how do I organize it? So number one, just market expansion. Um, you know, we talked about Ohio beginning adult use sales around September of 2024 with potential for a hundred million dollar monthly sales.

[00:06:33] And I think, uh, we were pretty close to that. Let me see what Ohio did in November.

[00:06:42] Data backed conversation.

[00:06:44] Yeah. Yeah. I think this is like the only data I have for today. Uh, so it's doing about 80 million in November.

[00:06:51] Yeah. Well, to be fair to us, we also didn't know that pre-rolls would be precluded from the launch of the market, which I think accounts for a couple, 10, 20 mil maybe.

[00:07:04] Yeah. True. There you go. There you go.

[00:07:07] It's a big category.

[00:07:08] They're not buying enough whole day units out there.

[00:07:12] I think they need some more whole day units.

[00:07:14] Yeah. They, they have a pretty thriving hemp, uh, market right now. And I, I, I get to meet with, um, uh, some operators from Ohio, uh, that we've talked about on the show.

[00:07:25] And, uh, they mentioned that, you know, there's a lot of kind of growing pains going on right now with Ohio market, given it's new, a lot of scrutiny from regulators and things like that.

[00:07:37] When they have this like crazy unregulated, unregulated intoxicated hemp world all around them, but they, they, they understand it's like, um, the regulators want to get it right.

[00:07:48] And so there, it's just kind of, I think making things a little slower. So I think in that combined with the pre-rolls, like you're saying, it's just, um, yeah, kind of not, not as large as it could be yet, but I think that might be a story for 2025.

[00:08:03] I think so too. And I think that though, and like just to do apples to oranges, which is cannabis to the intoxicating hemp in a way is like, uh, the other group can advertise and does, and our industry cannot.

[00:08:20] So, I mean, there's just a bunch of things, but I think a hundred mil, 80 mil a month. We're not totally, we're not so, so off. If you look at those relative factors that we didn't have at that moment to comprehend.

[00:08:33] Yeah. Yeah. So that was our first one. Next, uh, Florida will have adult use legalization on the November ballot as the clarity, um, which they did.

[00:08:45] That was actually not a foregone conclusion because the state was fighting it all the way down. The AG was fighting it. Um, it is incredible. It was a, and what was it called? A citizen's initiative, which is incredibly expensive.

[00:08:59] Um, very expensive. It was a very expensive. And so they weren't even sure they'd have the funding to pull it off. So that call was not, that was not a given. So I'm going to give it to us.

[00:09:10] Yeah. Yeah. Um, we didn't predict if they, if they actually would, uh, I don't think, but, uh, yeah.

[00:09:18] Yeah. You know why? Because of the 60%. Yes. Yeah.

[00:09:23] Yeah. It was a toss up even then, right. You had to get that hurdle.

[00:09:27] Yeah. I mean, it was never, yeah. So even though we tried to, you know, you try to be optimistic and manifest things, but I mean, we always said the reality of that 60% was going to be hard.

[00:09:38] It's going to be hard.

[00:09:39] Yeah. Uh, Pennsylvania's governor is pushing for legalization, uh, by July, 2024. Oops.

[00:09:48] It's like, uh, I think we'll predict again for 2025. And that is a bit of news, uh, that, that, you know, the governor's talking about it again for budgeting purposes.

[00:09:59] But I think it's like, what is that saying? Like a broken clock is right twice or whatever. Like, like eventually Pennsylvania will legalize. Right. We just keep saying it. You know, that saying it's a, it's a, did I say it wrong?

[00:10:14] No, I just had to, you know, yeah. Had my bond moment on that one.

[00:10:18] It's a, you know, I think it's like anyone can be right, you know, every once in a while. Uh, but, but I think Pennsylvania, it's like, we'll just keep saying it 2025, 2026, 2027, 2077, whatever, you know, we're still talking about, um, Pennsylvania. So maybe this is the year, but we were, we were wrong on that one.

[00:10:42] We were wrong, but we'll be right this year.

[00:10:44] Yeah. And, but then it's going to be sad and the great bum out of 24 selling in, uh, what state run stores.

[00:10:52] Oh, right. Right. That's right. That was that. That was last week. We talked about, uh, yeah, yeah. Someone on there.

[00:10:59] Government weed, man.

[00:11:00] Yeah. So dynamic and fun.

[00:11:03] Okay.

[00:11:04] Um, then we talked about, uh, well, we just said if Florida and Pennsylvania legalize six of the top seven population states would have legal cannabis markets.

[00:11:12] I think that excludes only Texas, which, um, is a bummer that neither of those went because now we only have four of the seven.

[00:11:24] Um, so weirdly today, I'm not sure we were able to get it in at the very right before popping on here.

[00:11:31] I think I saw that Texas is legalized cannabis.

[00:11:35] They're just, they legalized it yesterday. Um, that was like, remember when Arizona opened, they were like, we opened and we were like, oh shit. Okay.

[00:11:44] Um, let me, um, let me pull it up while you're talking about one of our next predictions, which I think we also did pretty well on.

[00:11:51] Mm-hmm. Uh, next we really talked a lot about New York and New York, uh, particularly the growth of the market.

[00:11:57] And we predicted, uh, 2024 to be the year of New York.

[00:12:02] And, uh, I think that is very much the case.

[00:12:04] The market had doubled, uh, in early 2024 when we were talking about this stuff.

[00:12:09] And now I think it doubled to like 85 licensed locations from, I don't know, was it like five for the longest time, all the lawsuits and stuff.

[00:12:19] It was, it was just really not moving.

[00:12:20] And then it started moving.

[00:12:21] So we're like, it's just going to keep going.

[00:12:23] Well, it did.

[00:12:24] And now we're at 147 stores, I think in the market.

[00:12:28] Um, and, and it's doing well, but I mean, it's got plenty of headroom yet.

[00:12:31] And, um, I think still plenty of headwinds as well, uh, because it seems to just constantly be bombarded by lawsuit issues.

[00:12:42] Um, so it's not, you know, not the perfect market, uh, but it's, it's growing.

[00:12:48] And I think that's all we said, you know, we wanted to see significant growth and store openings, uh, which would be a, uh, or it would be a major market for brand development.

[00:12:58] Um, and I think we had done a report at headset, just kind of, um, cultural differences between New York city and upstate and just what that looks like.

[00:13:06] Uh, and we kind of covered some of that when we were doing our predictions, but yeah, New York's been a good market.

[00:13:11] Um, a lot of operators, you know, coming up there.

[00:13:15] So I think it'll still continue in the, in the, to the next year, 2025.

[00:13:20] Yeah.

[00:13:20] Did you ever see that funny map of New York, which is the New Yorkers perspective of New York state, which is Manhattan.

[00:13:26] Manhattan.

[00:13:27] And then it just like goes off Niagara falls.

[00:13:31] It's like Manhattan, Long Island and the boroughs.

[00:13:34] But, um, as a person from Buffalo, New York, I can say the people in Buffalo, New York, I think are more like folks from Ohio.

[00:13:41] Yeah.

[00:13:42] And like the middle, the middle West versus, um, you know, lower the Southern part of the state or Southeast part, which is just very cosmopolitan.

[00:13:51] So, um, that's cool.

[00:13:54] I mean, geographically, it's not the biggest area.

[00:13:56] It's not like California where it's like, okay, you know, there may be cultural differences from, uh, you know, Northern, Northern California, like North of San Francisco town to like San Diego, you know, or LA, very different places, different cultures.

[00:14:10] Um, but New York seems to have that with the smaller geographic area.

[00:14:15] Yeah.

[00:14:15] Yeah.

[00:14:15] It's just the powerhouse.

[00:14:17] I mean, it's so funny too, because at the turn of the night of the century, like the 19, early 1900s, uh, Buffalo was the epicenter because of the trade route through Canada and everything.

[00:14:25] But anyway, go bills.

[00:14:28] Yeah.

[00:14:29] Yeah.

[00:14:29] Yeah.

[00:14:29] Buffalo, Rochester, uh, Kodak, all that Syracuse, all those total powerhouses of Corning, uh, glass.

[00:14:39] That's an amazing technology company.

[00:14:41] Anyway, upstate has some interesting things going.

[00:14:44] This episode brought to you by the state of New York.

[00:14:49] I work in those sponsor deals.

[00:14:51] But yeah, but I mean, even just having traveled, uh, back to New York a couple of times this year, seeing the, I mean, you could see and feel the impact of the kind of the gray market or unregulated stores getting closed and dispensaries, legal regulated dispensaries opening and hearing from New Yorkers too, who were finally starting to understand the difference because they were pretty confused, uh, to begin with for good, good reason.

[00:15:18] They were very happy about the change, um, across the board.

[00:15:22] Just people I met who really had no stake in the game.

[00:15:25] So yeah.

[00:15:27] Yeah.

[00:15:27] Long.

[00:15:27] It took a long time, but they did it.

[00:15:29] They did it, uh, and continue to do it.

[00:15:31] So I think it'll also be story for 2025.

[00:15:35] And then we talked about product trends, uh, vape, strong growth, which I should have pulled some numbers on this one.

[00:15:43] Feels like it's the case, but you have some numbers on this.

[00:15:47] Yeah.

[00:15:48] We just published a new vape report too.

[00:15:51] I should, uh, be a little more prepared for the podcast, but, uh, yeah, you know, and the team at Poseidon really wanted to know who wrote the LinkedIn post for this because it was really funny.

[00:16:00] And we were trying, we were wondering if it was yours.

[00:16:04] Wasn't me.

[00:16:05] Okay.

[00:16:06] Probably Scott or someone else on the team.

[00:16:09] Gen Z loves vibes and vapor pens and we're bringing the receipts.

[00:16:15] They now make up 37.9% of Gen Z's cannabis purchases, surpassing flower at 32.5%.

[00:16:22] Okay.

[00:16:22] There you go.

[00:16:23] Hot off the press.

[00:16:24] When did we publish that?

[00:16:25] Like this week, right?

[00:16:26] Uh, it was seven hours ago.

[00:16:28] Today.

[00:16:30] Yeah.

[00:16:30] Wow.

[00:16:31] Colin was like, please tell me Scott or, or Si.

[00:16:35] Scott wrote this.

[00:16:36] Someone should take credit for it.

[00:16:38] Yeah.

[00:16:39] I'll find out and I'll give him a shout out, but yeah, that's, that's great.

[00:16:41] I'll link to it in the show notes.

[00:16:44] So we did, we got that one, right?

[00:16:46] Mm-hmm.

[00:16:47] Nailed it.

[00:16:48] Continued evolution of the hemp derived THC markets or intoxicating hemp or, you know, whatever you want to call it.

[00:16:54] Delta eight, Delta nine, THCA, um, all of these, uh, wild varieties, which is true.

[00:17:02] We saw a lot of evolution there.

[00:17:03] And I think we will continue to see evolution as we will talk through, uh, in the show here.

[00:17:09] We, uh, I mean, we really, that one was really good.

[00:17:12] I think evolution is the correct word.

[00:17:14] Yeah.

[00:17:15] It was crazy this, this year, 2024, um, how much that whole world exploded.

[00:17:21] It kind of reminds me of the CBD stuff.

[00:17:24] Um, do you remember that where it was like everywhere and then nowhere?

[00:17:30] So it's like, yeah, I was at, you know, CVS.

[00:17:33] Or whatever.

[00:17:34] And, and still somewhat is right.

[00:17:35] But not, I mean, it was everywhere.

[00:17:37] Every, every bodegue, every shop, every cafe had CBD something.

[00:17:44] Okay.

[00:17:45] It kind of reminds me of that.

[00:17:46] I know it's not, not exactly the same, but just this like zero to infinity.

[00:17:51] It's so fast.

[00:17:52] Yeah.

[00:17:52] Uh, I think I have like five inbounds on my LinkedIn for people who are quote unquote

[00:17:57] launching, uh, intoxicating hemp drinks.

[00:18:01] So it's, it's going to get real loud.

[00:18:04] Hmm.

[00:18:06] I, I mean, I just feel like if you have no idea how to manage beverage or, or a brand,

[00:18:12] it's going to different flavors, I guess.

[00:18:16] I don't know.

[00:18:18] Um, different packaging.

[00:18:21] Uh, yeah, I think that's kind of it for the predictions.

[00:18:26] No, we really, I mean, cause we did go on to say there was going to be tensions between

[00:18:30] the markets, which is correct.

[00:18:33] Right.

[00:18:33] Beverage and edibles expected to see developments, particularly in the hemp derived products.

[00:18:38] I mean, that's really where it exploded.

[00:18:40] Oh, and then, uh, this one is good.

[00:18:43] Uh, where you, you were quoted as not holding your breath for federal, federal reform.

[00:18:49] Uh, but I know it's a, that's a good one.

[00:18:53] You know, cautiously, cautiously optimistic, uh, is what you had said as we always are.

[00:18:58] Uh, but yeah, you know, you, you nailed that one, even though it's like, what's last

[00:19:03] year of Biden's term, you know, they're going to make good on this.

[00:19:07] They've announced it.

[00:19:08] We've been waiting, whatever.

[00:19:11] DEA is all going to, this process will be done.

[00:19:13] Long done.

[00:19:14] Nope.

[00:19:15] You're like, no way.

[00:19:16] No, not holding my breath.

[00:19:19] Not holding your breath.

[00:19:20] I'm glad you didn't hold your breath.

[00:19:21] Me too.

[00:19:22] Still here.

[00:19:23] Still breathing.

[00:19:24] Still breathing.

[00:19:26] I will, we'll start with Maslow's needs.

[00:19:29] We're still breathing.

[00:19:30] Okay.

[00:19:31] We keep going.

[00:19:32] Number one.

[00:19:32] Number one.

[00:19:33] Bre.

[00:19:34] Start there.

[00:19:35] I don't know.

[00:19:35] I just had a couple of meetings this week with people who are big investors in other spaces

[00:19:39] like FinTech and all kinds of things.

[00:19:41] Like we, you know, we often are, you know, feeling we have a myopic view of the world if

[00:19:47] we're just fully immersed in the thing that we're focused on.

[00:19:49] And that's for a good reason.

[00:19:51] But then when you zoom out and you talk to people outside, it's, it's not easy in other

[00:19:56] places too.

[00:19:57] So it's just been a weird time.

[00:19:59] FinTech, huh?

[00:20:00] FinTech's struggling.

[00:20:03] It's well, there's a lot of uncertainty about, you know, whether the FDIC will continue and

[00:20:09] other things that are related to banks.

[00:20:13] You know, there's just a lot because of the changing administration.

[00:20:15] So, you know, regulation.

[00:20:20] Yeah.

[00:20:20] Yeah.

[00:20:21] Especially FinTech.

[00:20:23] Unless you're focused on Dogecoin, then you're safe.

[00:20:26] I think Fartcoin is where you want to have your money now.

[00:20:29] It is above a billion today.

[00:20:33] All because I guess a bunch of people need to feel better about their digestive system.

[00:20:37] I don't understand.

[00:20:39] It's really gross.

[00:20:40] What is wrong with people?

[00:20:42] Like, I don't know.

[00:20:43] And Hawk Tour coin, what?

[00:20:45] They pulled the rug on that.

[00:20:48] Coins.

[00:20:49] Oh, that's so great.

[00:20:52] Just, you're at a high-end bar, high-end resort or something.

[00:20:57] Somebody.

[00:20:57] Small talk.

[00:20:58] I made my billions in Fartcoin.

[00:21:05] Wow.

[00:21:05] Anyways.

[00:21:06] So we did good.

[00:21:07] 2024.

[00:21:08] So, I don't know.

[00:21:10] 2025.

[00:21:11] My first prediction?

[00:21:13] Pennsylvania legalizes.

[00:21:16] Oh, the clock is right twice.

[00:21:18] That's right.

[00:21:20] I love that.

[00:21:21] I don't, you know, I don't really have good ones.

[00:21:23] I think, nothing like concrete, I was thinking, you know, it's like, of course, markets are

[00:21:27] going to grow.

[00:21:28] Ohio, I think, will grow into their $100 million monthly.

[00:21:33] You know, it's just some of that stuff.

[00:21:34] But, you know, like real tough predictions.

[00:21:39] I don't know.

[00:21:40] I think, you know, the hemp market will continue to develop.

[00:21:42] If anything, I think it will contract as we've been seeing.

[00:21:46] The intoxicating hemp market, so to speak.

[00:21:50] But, I don't know.

[00:21:50] Do you have anything good?

[00:21:51] Like, what do you think is, you know, more than just kind of the usual ebbs and flows

[00:21:57] of the category?

[00:21:59] Yeah.

[00:22:00] On the federal level, I think the Supreme Court case is going to move forward.

[00:22:05] Yeah, yeah.

[00:22:05] And that's supposed to be this summer?

[00:22:07] That's what we're hearing.

[00:22:09] And so, we'll see.

[00:22:11] You know, obviously, there's a lot of work to do, amicus briefs to be written.

[00:22:14] But we are getting some support from non-industry participants, which will be made clear soon,

[00:22:22] which is exciting.

[00:22:25] You know, I think that's one thing.

[00:22:26] Which happens first?

[00:22:27] How about this bet?

[00:22:28] Ooh.

[00:22:29] DEA statement?

[00:22:31] Or it gets to the endgame with the Supreme Court?

[00:22:36] Or, you know, whatever milestone that is.

[00:22:38] Well, let me just get, this is, okay, let's articulate this.

[00:22:43] So, do you mean, will we have an ALJ hearing completed and results of that hearing?

[00:22:49] Maybe not completed, but I don't know.

[00:22:51] What's the, like, set or something?

[00:22:55] Yeah.

[00:22:56] Hmm.

[00:22:57] I think the ALJ hearing will happen first.

[00:23:00] Hmm.

[00:23:03] Although, I'm not sure, because they are petitioning to challenge some of the things that are happening there.

[00:23:08] So, I don't know.

[00:23:11] What do you think?

[00:23:13] That's a tough call.

[00:23:14] Yeah.

[00:23:16] I'm just betting that, or, like, hoping that something happens.

[00:23:20] One of the, one or both.

[00:23:22] Like, I don't care.

[00:23:24] All.

[00:23:24] All.

[00:23:25] It's, like, none of it is, like, none of it cancels the other.

[00:23:30] You know what I mean?

[00:23:31] So, it's just all beneficial.

[00:23:34] So, but, well, safe banking I'm not very confident on still.

[00:23:39] But I do have my conversation coming up with Rob Nichols from the American Banking Association and his lobbying group to understand that.

[00:23:48] So, we'll see.

[00:23:49] That's in early January.

[00:23:53] I don't know.

[00:23:54] You know, maybe the call is, there's going to be something.

[00:24:02] I have one thought, and I do think, I'm going to call this one.

[00:24:06] I think we're going to hear something from the new administration within the first 90 days.

[00:24:12] Oh, wow.

[00:24:13] Wow.

[00:24:14] On a positive point on cannabis reform.

[00:24:20] Well, I mean, there's crazier things, you know?

[00:24:25] Yeah.

[00:24:28] That would be nice.

[00:24:29] That would be nice.

[00:24:30] Just any, just even directional, like, point of view.

[00:24:34] I know it was stated in the election cycle, but we all know the rubber hits the road in January when the transition occurs.

[00:24:40] So.

[00:24:40] Yeah.

[00:24:41] Okay.

[00:24:41] Yeah.

[00:24:42] Well, that's a good one.

[00:24:43] That's a good one.

[00:24:43] It's kind of, I don't know.

[00:24:44] It's kind of a fun one.

[00:24:45] Maybe we manifest.

[00:24:46] Super fun, yeah.

[00:24:47] Like a big, like, I don't know.

[00:24:50] One time Trump had, you know, forced Chris Christie to eat meatloaf.

[00:24:54] Maybe he'll force Congress to do something on cannabis reform.

[00:24:59] Um, that actually happened.

[00:25:01] Okay.

[00:25:05] Well, cool.

[00:25:05] Yeah.

[00:25:06] No, good, good.

[00:25:06] Well, we'll see.

[00:25:07] We'll see.

[00:25:07] Um, I think any, any progress, some, some progress is going to have to happen this, this year.

[00:25:14] Yeah.

[00:25:14] Yeah.

[00:25:15] But I think the one, you have something really interesting here, which is, uh, kind of a continuation of one of our big, uh, prediction sections, which is the hemp versus, uh, regulated cannabis.

[00:25:28] Yeah.

[00:25:29] Yeah.

[00:25:29] So like, uh, you know, beyond predictions, you know, because we talked about it last year, because seems things seem to be changing pretty quickly.

[00:25:37] It's hard for me to keep up with all of it.

[00:25:41] Um, so I just did a bit of research and I thought we could kind of discuss it a little bit, uh, on the podcast.

[00:25:49] Basically what is going on with the intoxicating hemp, uh, products, the hemp derived THC products, gummies, beverages.

[00:25:57] Um, you know, as we know, uh, obviously California had some changes recently.

[00:26:02] And then I think we talked about it last week, uh, about Texas.

[00:26:06] Um, the governor there indicating that they're going to be doing something around that for the thousands of stores.

[00:26:14] So, um, yeah, I thought we just kind of cover it.

[00:26:17] So like, you know, where we are post 2018 farm bill and this, uh, this more or less loophole that was created.

[00:26:26] And then the state's kind of catching up with the market, um, is what, is what the narrative feels like to me.

[00:26:34] I mean, it's always been that way, but it just feels like a wave, uh, is coming.

[00:26:40] And the first one, I think most recently, like the new cycle I saw Tennessee, uh, has a full ban coming, uh, December 26th.

[00:26:50] So that's in like a week.

[00:26:52] And, um, that's maybe like top of mind, but you know, this, and it may change, I guess there's a judge who's going to rule something on it.

[00:27:02] So it may not get banned, but, uh, you know, that one's right around the corner, um, on the list, like states with full or partial bans, obviously California, uh, when Newsom came out and, uh, and, you know, made that, that blanket ban.

[00:27:18] I don't know the details.

[00:27:19] Like I've heard there's like, uh, it's not so simple.

[00:27:22] It's not so cut and dry.

[00:27:23] I don't know where I've heard that, but you know, uh, I'm no lawyer on this stuff.

[00:27:28] So, uh, but, but it just does seem like that's getting, it's getting shut down or at least regulated in some capacity.

[00:27:34] New York requires licensing, uh, and stringent oversight for hemp drive, um, intoxicated, intoxicating products, uh, South Dakota, Alaska.

[00:27:45] I mean, that's just on like a short list here.

[00:27:48] Yeah.

[00:27:48] And then you've got Missouri, which has a pretty strict ban on it already.

[00:27:55] Uh, that's interesting that that wasn't captured here.

[00:27:57] Uh, initial bands, I think got scaled back a little bit in Missouri.

[00:28:04] Wait, no, but I just thought, well, something else just happened this week.

[00:28:07] Long story short, I think it's, and that was the one, remember I sent you that the Bush Bush, the beer company was like supporting, which I don't know if people remember, but when we called out the ban in California, the first group to like laud, um, Newsom for, uh, this move was the, one of the,

[00:28:27] uh, wine and spirits and beer distributors associations.

[00:28:31] And then as soon as I saw this other one, we saw that Bush was like, yes, this is what needs to be done, which does dovetail into conversations.

[00:28:41] I've heard about what's going on regarding the farm bill that big alcohol is trying to help to get this into a regulated channel, which doesn't, I don't think it shocks any of us.

[00:28:52] Like total wine and spirits took a big move, a big step earlier on, on having those products on the shelves.

[00:28:59] So I think it's not shocking, but I think, yeah, we'll have to see.

[00:29:06] Yeah.

[00:29:07] I'm looking there's a, yeah.

[00:29:08] From a couple of days ago.

[00:29:09] Um, MJ biz reporting that Missouri lawmakers introduced three bills to regulate hemp products.

[00:29:17] So, um, yeah, let's see.

[00:29:21] One would regulate only hemp derived beverages and establish the same three tier distribution system long used by the state alcohol industry.

[00:29:31] Um, yeah, that's one of them.

[00:29:33] Uh, it's supported by the Missouri beer wholesalers association and opposed by the Missouri hemp trade association.

[00:29:41] Uh, then you've got another one, uh, regulating beverages as well as imposed guidelines for edibles, tinctures and vapes.

[00:29:49] Um, it doesn't say what, how, and it says hemp trade group believes both bills set THC potency caps too low.

[00:29:56] Um, and then in the final proposal, another state Senator, uh, sponsored legislation that would ban the majority of intoxicating hemp and require eligible products to be sold to regulated medical marijuana dispensaries.

[00:30:10] So pick your poison here.

[00:30:12] Obviously.

[00:30:13] Yeah.

[00:30:14] It's like the, the alcohol channel, but then the hemp group doesn't want that.

[00:30:19] Um, right.

[00:30:20] The other one seems maybe it's like in the middle, but, uh, potency is too low for everybody.

[00:30:25] I don't know.

[00:30:26] So this is, this is what's, but this is what's happening right everywhere.

[00:30:30] It's like states are catching up, uh, and they're either outright banning it or looking at ways to regulate it.

[00:30:35] Um, and you know, they had a, they had a good solid year to grow into.

[00:30:42] You know, revenue and for the host, the alcohol wholesalers to kind of get a idea of the growth that they can, you know, see from something like this, including like liquor stores.

[00:30:53] And companies like that, that sell these products.

[00:30:55] So there is motivation to keep it.

[00:30:58] Um, it would seem.

[00:31:01] Yeah.

[00:31:01] No, I mean, I think a lot of us think this cat, this all can live.

[00:31:05] It just needs to have a little bit more structure and regulation around it.

[00:31:09] And please, please, please, please age verification.

[00:31:13] Yeah.

[00:31:14] Please.

[00:31:15] Yeah.

[00:31:16] And Ohio right now, I don't think there's much in the way of restrictions.

[00:31:20] Um, but there are some proposals pending.

[00:31:23] It looks like.

[00:31:24] And I think it's these regulators that are scrutinizing their new nascent adult use cannabis market.

[00:31:32] I think once that gets sorted, then the state will turn their attention, um, more significantly to the hemp side.

[00:31:40] I mean, I think this is just like any other category that explodes, um, in this fashion.

[00:31:46] And there's a lot of people who all of a sudden, um, jump into the category and, and it reminds me of like the early days of vape pens for tobacco actually.

[00:31:57] Um, and the states and the FDA didn't know how to deal with it, nor did they, did they, um, until it became a concern, a going concern for parents specifically.

[00:32:09] And then it, then it all exploded.

[00:32:12] But, um, and then there was, of course, because it was on, see, because the, the lack of regulation, it's the age and the what's in it that become the most problematic from a public safety standpoint.

[00:32:23] And it's like, I don't know.

[00:32:26] I just, I hope this industry gets its arm around it before some, some bad headlines come.

[00:32:33] Yeah.

[00:32:34] Right.

[00:32:35] Right.

[00:32:35] So we'll see.

[00:32:37] Uh, Illinois, uh, so states with regulations or emerging frameworks, um, you know, Florida, as we, as we recall, um, I mean, you, you get out to Florida from time to time.

[00:32:49] How, how is the vibe?

[00:32:51] Is it, are there shops everywhere?

[00:32:53] Is it, uh, yeah, there are quite a bit.

[00:32:56] Yeah.

[00:32:56] I mean, it's everywhere.

[00:32:57] And I feel like even Brady posted, like, um, they were selling THC gummies in like a ice cream store.

[00:33:04] Like, you know, flies in the face of, um, everything I just said.

[00:33:11] So, but I know, I know Governor Pritzker just, um, put out something about regulating this more too.

[00:33:18] That's right.

[00:33:19] Um, for Illinois.

[00:33:20] Um, yeah.

[00:33:22] Um, yeah, there was, it was just this week calls for crackdown on, on regulated intoxicating hemp.

[00:33:28] Um, so yeah, I do think it comes kind of part and parcel with, we are in the regulated side.

[00:33:35] It's like hyper-regulated.

[00:33:37] And then you've got this.

[00:33:38] Yeah, here he is.

[00:33:39] Uh-oh.

[00:33:39] See, children across the state of Illinois are getting sick and they're being hospitalized.

[00:33:44] We can take action to prevent it.

[00:33:46] This is just not what we got into this for.

[00:33:49] Yeah, definitely not.

[00:33:50] Here we go.

[00:33:51] They're untested and unregulated and are widely available and accessible to young people.

[00:33:56] There it is.

[00:33:58] There it is.

[00:33:58] And that was what Newsom was saying in his, uh, in his, um, press, uh, junket or whatever,

[00:34:07] where he was, you know, announcing the ban and he had like sample products there.

[00:34:12] Uh, yeah, for sure.

[00:34:14] It's terrible, terrible look, especially the candies that, that are clones of actual candies

[00:34:19] and stuff.

[00:34:19] It's crazy.

[00:34:21] Yeah.

[00:34:21] It's, it's so funny for you and I too, because like, I feel like we already went through that

[00:34:25] cycle where cannabis companies were just spraying weed on like actual gummy bears or whatever.

[00:34:31] I totally remember that.

[00:34:33] What was the time?

[00:34:34] Was the time?

[00:34:35] Yeah.

[00:34:35] Just spraying, spraying everything.

[00:34:37] And then there was a lot in the medical day of, of like, um.

[00:34:41] Just spraying.

[00:34:42] The early medical days of, uh, of the, the, the bad packaging too.

[00:34:47] And all the, the regulated channel fixed that.

[00:34:49] And this is what, uh, looking at this bill in Illinois, uh, the legislation, um, looks

[00:34:55] like it includes prohibitions around packaging designed to imitate candy slash popular food

[00:35:00] products.

[00:35:01] I think that's, you know, imitating candy.

[00:35:04] It's crazy that, you know, it's like common sense, but they have to put it into, into law,

[00:35:09] of course, because people will take advantage.

[00:35:11] Uh, also packaging marketing designed to appeal to children as crazy that again, that that's

[00:35:19] even the thing.

[00:35:20] Yeah.

[00:35:20] Um, but yeah, it is kind of annoying if that's the world, like you're, you're, if you're not

[00:35:25] in our category at day to day and that's the world you see, cause you go to some ice cream

[00:35:30] store in Florida.

[00:35:31] And then I tell people I'm involved with this industry.

[00:35:34] Like, I don't want that.

[00:35:35] Like, that's not great.

[00:35:37] Like it's not what I want to be associated with.

[00:35:41] It sucks.

[00:35:41] Um, so it's good that these States are catching up and yeah, regulating and putting them in

[00:35:46] the regulated channel, regulating it this similarly.

[00:35:49] Yeah.

[00:35:49] I don't know.

[00:35:50] Beverages, low dose beverages, you know, maybe there is a cool path to like some, something

[00:35:54] where they're carved out somehow.

[00:35:57] Um, you know, in this sense of still age gated, still packaging requirements, but, um, I don't

[00:36:06] know, maybe the exposure is good, right.

[00:36:09] At total wine and stuff for, for the category, but I don't see how total wine will ever sell

[00:36:16] concentrates, you know?

[00:36:19] But yeah, no, I don't think so.

[00:36:21] I don't think so.

[00:36:21] And I think, I think that's right.

[00:36:24] I think, um, yeah, because it's interesting that alcohol has taken an interest in this as

[00:36:29] another group who has to work in a regulated market.

[00:36:31] So they understand what it takes and they've been on the wrong side of that trade too.

[00:36:37] So, so we'll see.

[00:36:38] I think the prediction that we are going to continue to see this take shape is, is going

[00:36:43] to continue to show, uh, veracity, but, uh, what shape it takes.

[00:36:49] And it's just, it is also just interesting that all of these states are kind of taking

[00:36:53] a different approach to how they, they want to regulate it versus like maybe coming together

[00:37:00] to understand how to think about it.

[00:37:02] But this is, this is the nature of the United States.

[00:37:06] Yeah.

[00:37:07] State.

[00:37:08] So I just looking at states by population.

[00:37:10] So California, obviously number one, uh, right now banned, right?

[00:37:16] Um, Texas number two, um, going to be banned most likely, uh, Florida.

[00:37:24] I don't know.

[00:37:25] Does Florida have like, are those stores safe?

[00:37:28] Is like that ice cream store safe right now to sell that stuff?

[00:37:32] Are they protected or are they just protected by the federal?

[00:37:35] Um, I think they're protected by the federal.

[00:37:37] I just don't think they're because the governor knocked down the like attempted.

[00:37:41] Yeah.

[00:37:42] To shut it down.

[00:37:42] Right.

[00:37:43] It seemed like a little bit of politics to, to kill, um, amendment, uh, 64.

[00:37:50] What was the Florida legalization?

[00:37:53] Amendment three, three, three, three.

[00:37:54] Right.

[00:37:54] But at the same time also did not or vetoed, um, there was an attempted bill to regulate

[00:37:59] this more.

[00:38:01] Um, it was, it was about, let's see.

[00:38:03] Oh, I guess existing guidelines technically enforce age limits and potency rules.

[00:38:11] But the problem is that I think the, the companies that are like the stores that are selling these,

[00:38:19] like these little bodegas or whatever are not, um, I'm not even sure they're familiar with

[00:38:25] the regulations around this.

[00:38:26] Hmm.

[00:38:27] And, you know, the other thing is like, is some of the drinks, for example, I don't even think

[00:38:33] like they're labeled as like seltzer, you know?

[00:38:36] And like, and maybe it says like Delta nine or something.

[00:38:40] Not everybody knows what Delta nine is.

[00:38:42] I don't know.

[00:38:42] Like, I mean, we do, but like CBD.

[00:38:46] Just kidding.

[00:38:48] Yeah, I know.

[00:38:49] I know.

[00:38:50] So anyway, Florida is safe somewhat.

[00:38:54] Right.

[00:38:54] And then New York is regulated.

[00:38:56] Uh, Pennsylvania.

[00:38:57] I'm not sure where Pennsylvania lands.

[00:38:59] Is it on my notes here?

[00:39:01] Nope.

[00:39:02] Who knows?

[00:39:03] They're going to be legal next year anyways for adult use.

[00:39:06] So yeah, just get rolled into that.

[00:39:08] And then after that, Illinois, which we just talked about and then Ohio.

[00:39:12] So, you know, and then Georgia, North Carolina, which I also don't know where we sit with him

[00:39:17] there.

[00:39:18] Um, but that's like top 10 states.

[00:39:21] So a fair amount of them are addressing this is, I guess, is my point, you know, uh, like

[00:39:25] population wise, big coverage, um, big changes that are, they're happening.

[00:39:30] So yeah, it feels like, yeah, the party, the lights are coming on at the party and people

[00:39:37] are having to go home some in some places.

[00:39:39] Or just have to, uh, show ID to participate.

[00:39:43] Yeah.

[00:39:43] Right, right, right.

[00:39:44] Just like, just show up in the right, you know, right, right situation to keep playing.

[00:39:50] So, yeah.

[00:39:52] Well, I mean, I, I, if I have to bet on 2025, I mean, I feel like this is going to be the

[00:39:58] thing more so than federal change around the farm bill.

[00:40:02] Like, I don't know.

[00:40:04] I, I'd be, I guess I'd be surprised if we saw something in federally that like change it

[00:40:09] significantly.

[00:40:10] I feel like the states are going to be the ones that are driving it just like in our regulated

[00:40:14] world.

[00:40:15] It's like, nothing's really going to happen federally, but states are going to keep pushing

[00:40:19] it.

[00:40:19] I mean, in the sense of it may stay, it may get renewed and may get extended.

[00:40:23] I don't think it's necessarily going to get straight up banned.

[00:40:27] No, I don't think so either.

[00:40:29] I think it's going to have just a different shape around it and that's fine.

[00:40:33] Right.

[00:40:34] I mean, yeah, we just want people to have good things that are safe.

[00:40:40] Right.

[00:40:41] That's all.

[00:40:42] Yeah.

[00:40:44] So I think that's it.

[00:40:46] So 2025, someone said to me, we're going to thrive in 25.

[00:40:51] I like that.

[00:40:53] Woo.

[00:40:57] Yeah.

[00:40:58] Yeah.

[00:40:59] Someone say celebrate.

[00:41:01] Uh, yeah.

[00:41:03] But I think, um, it's good.

[00:41:05] We sir thrived, I think in 24.

[00:41:08] Maybe.

[00:41:12] Thrive, not survive.

[00:41:13] Right.

[00:41:15] Yeah.

[00:41:15] Thrive, not survive.

[00:41:16] Thrive in 25.

[00:41:17] So.

[00:41:18] Yeah.

[00:41:19] We'll see.

[00:41:19] Yeah.

[00:41:20] That's good.

[00:41:20] That's good.

[00:41:21] Um, well, new, new chapter for, for a lot of things.

[00:41:25] So we'll see.

[00:41:26] Uh, it's as they say, interesting times.

[00:41:29] So.

[00:41:31] History is a rising road.

[00:41:33] Yeah.

[00:41:33] There you go.

[00:41:34] Well, happy holidays.

[00:41:36] Yeah.

[00:41:36] Yeah.

[00:41:36] Likewise.

[00:41:39] Enjoy the break.

[00:41:41] Um, I'm looking forward to next year.

[00:41:42] I'm looking forward to more high rise.

[00:41:44] Looking forward to tracking all this stuff.

[00:41:46] Um, and, uh, seeing where this, this journey takes us.

[00:41:50] So.

[00:41:51] Awesome.

[00:41:52] We'll see you next time.

[00:41:55] Thanks for listening to the high rise podcast presented by headset.

[00:41:59] For more information on headset, visit headset.io.